EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis

read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Forty years ago Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original papers that invented the field of behavioral economics One of the greatest pa. Originally reviewed in January 2017After reading about this book I pre ordered it six months before its release date It s about the work of the psychologist Daniel Kahneman who published Thinking Fast and Slow in 2011 and his late collaborator Amos Tversky Thinking Fast and Slow had a big impact on me Moreover The Undoing Project s author is Michael Lewis of Moneyball and The Big Short fame That s about all I knew of him Around the book s release date there was a flurry of publicity interviews I watched several including the long one with Charlie Rose Michael Lewis could hold his own and articulate his subjects work Besides being a writer of best selling nonfiction some of which have been made into popular movies Michael Lewis has an undergraduate degree in art history and a Master s in economics He s worked as a trader then resigned to write his first book Liar s Poker published back in 1989 just after he d turned 29 He became a financial journalist and has written for an array of well known magazines including a stint as a senior editor at The New RepublicThis book The Undoing Project focuses on the biographies of Kahneman and Tversky not only on their ideas and work That s not why I read it That that s what Lewis had to do to appeal to his usual wide readership made me a little cynical In the book Daniel Kahneman becomes Danny The ups and downs of their relationship and the whys and wherefores of their collaborative creativity are a large part of the book In my mind s eye I foresee a movie turning the two men into marketable personalities such as Oliver Sacks became in the movie Awakenings I wonder how Danny is feeling about that Yet that may be the price of cluing people into their work The Undoing Project is a best seller and Lewis role here is as a popularizerHe uses biography with its temporal correlate as one of his organizing principles proceeding through ideas to some extent in the order they were hatched but that doesn t necessarily help in the reader s grasping and ordering the ideas That s one of my complaints You won t necessarily be impacted by the ideas You won t necessarily see that they apply to you although they do For that read Kahneman s own book Thinking Fast and Slow Lewis says Kahneman is a star in the classroom a contention supported by the fact that he s a star in that book a genius of a teacher Kahneman has a subsection in his own book called CAN PSYCHOLOGY BE TAUGHT which I transmuted into the broader uestion Can people be led to look at themselves and on the basis of his book I answered YesAnother of my complaints about The Undoing Project is the first chapter which is completely dedicated to basketball Although Lewis touches on the ideas he s going to bring out later in the book the chapter is not that comprehensible to those who don t follow basketball I guess it s another nod to his general readershipNow for the good partDespite the way the book is organized the overload of biography and that opening chapter Michael Lewis is able to write clearly and succinctly about the cognitive illusions that bias our decisions Having been previously introduced to those concepts I experienced the book as a refresher course and directly upon plunging in breathed a sigh of relief as I felt my perspective clearing under its influenceThe book covers the usual territory heuristics bias the weakness of expert judgment relative to algorithms the cognitive illusions to which humans are subject Heuristic the term coined to reflect uick and dirty rules of thumb that to a degree work except when they don t and lead us astray For example the availability heuristic the easily something comes to mind the important and right we think it isAnd yes it s science not theory that is all research basedRather than going into a lot of detail to describe it though I can attach a link or two and then use most of my space here to describe some fun partsFor example knowledge is prediction What do you think about thatIn the basketball chapter Lewis describes how expert intuition failed to predict hence the relative success of algorithms in giving an advantage to the team depending on them instead of conventional expert judgmentTransitioning from basketball to baseball here s an informative 2003 review of Moneyball by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein who figure in The Undoing Project Surprisingly when Michael Lewis wrote Moneyball he d never heard of Kahneman and Tversky or their work He cites this review in his introduction The picture is of Billy Beane not Lewis Lewis uses the techniue of embedding the stories of various individuals whose careers and lives were impacted by Kahneman and Tversky s work That techniue I find useful maybe because I too find their work impactful Richard Thaler one of the authors of The New Republic article I linked is an economist who was having trouble finding his way in a field then based on the assumption that people were rational The assumption had entailed that although people did err they were essentially rational their errors thus could be assumed to be randomly distributed outweighed and meaningless Instead people s behavior was characterized by systematic error If error was systematic it could not be ignoredThaler got someone to send him a draft of Value Theory He instantly saw it for what it was a truck packed with psychology that might be driven into inner sanctums of economics and exploded The logic in the paper was awesome overpowering The paper blew a hole in economic theory for psychology to enter That really is the magic of the paper said Thaler showing you could do it Math with psychology in it The paper was what an economist would call proof of existence It captured so much of human natureThat sounds like such a thrill really gets my iconoclastic juices flowing There are so many examples of ways our thinking and decisions are shaped framing for example for people perception of a loss depends on framing which is manipulable Two monkeys are satisfied when each is rewarded by a cucumber but let one get a banana and all hell breaks loose You earn a certain amount that you think is reasonable for work on a project an amount that is greater than others in your group Now say you earn the exact same amount but discover your peers received twice as much Suddenly the previously sufficient amount is grossly inadeuate That s just one example but one with which I d become familiar since framing or reframing had entered the therapeutic lexiconAnother personage whose life and work surfaces in the book is Donald Redelmeier a physician who as a result of having come across Kahneman and Tversky s work on judgment under uncertainty as a teenager came to oversee decision making in a trauma center as a preventive for systematic errors The article was called Judgment Under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases It was in eual parts familiar and strange what the hell was a heuristic Redelmeier was seventeen ykears old and some of the jargon was beyond him But the article described three ways in which people made judgments when they didn t know the answer for sure The names the author had given these representativeness availability anchoring were at once weird and secudtive They made the phenomenon they described feel like secret knowledge And yet what they were saying struck Redelmeier as the simple truth mainly because he was fooled by the uestions they put to the reader He too guessed that the guy they named Dick and described so blandly was eually likely to be a lawyer or an engineer even though he came from a pool that was mostly lawyers He too made a different prediction when he was given worthless evidence than when he was given no evidence at all He too thought that there were words in a typical passage of English prose that started with K than had K in the third position because words that began with K were easier to recall This wasn t just about how many words in the English language started with the letter K This was about life and death That article was thrilling than a movie to me said RedelmeierLet me not forget to mention that people are geniuses of rationalization We can t predict what s going to happen but once something does happen we connect the dots to make whatever it was appear to have been inevitable An occupational hazard of historians thus is to connect observed facts into a confident sounding theory while neglecting the unobserved or unobservable facts A similar hazard for social science experimenters is to take results that contradict the hypothesis and rationalize them rather than discarding the hypothesis as flawed Thus it is that talking heads of all sorts can often cover up their errors in prediction and simply keep on talkingAt one point Kahneman and Tversky were enad of something called Decision Theory thinking that presidents and prime ministers could be educated and aided in logic like emergency room physicians until coming up against the fact that powerful people usually men mostly had no interest at all in knowing about their mistakes Here is a New York Magazine review of The Undoing Project that tells a little about that shares an additional uote from the book and makes the frightening connection to the Age of Trump article makes reference a Social and Behavioral Science Team in the Obama White House Yes most but not all leaders wish to remain oblivious to their gaps in making good decisions former President Obama had a team in place to aid the government in using the new cognitive knowledge for the common good of the American people and it remained in place until the last minute Here s a link to an article about it from the January 23 2017 issue of The New Yorker nowthe team if it even continued to exist in the new Administration would soon belong to one of the most anti science President elects in history who has called climate change a hoax spread unproven claims about vaccinations ties to autism and mocked new brain science backed NFL guidelines to prevent concussions saying that football had grown softSad what we are losing Two steps forward and it appears a giant step backward But we can still learn Little simple things that make a differenceSuch as from the same New Yorker articleThe team advised Obama officials on how to uash false claims that the President was a Muslim Instead of saying No Obama is not a Muslim which simply increased association by repetition it was better to counter with Actually Obama is a Christian In the Kahneman vernacular just denying Obama is a Muslim played on the availability heuristic Even though the content the words deny the charge by repeating it they made it come to mind easier and thus seem true and relevant The second option stating that Obama is a Christian interfered It threw a little bit of a monkey wrench into promulgation of the problematic beliefThis stuff is useful If this is how our minds work if that s the sort of thing that is working on our minds anyway then what constitutes free will is grasping that knowledge and using it for the sake of better thinking Reason developed not to enable us to solve abstract logical problems or even to help us draw conclusions from unfamiliar data rather it developed to resolve the problems posed by living in collaborative groupsThere was little advantage in reasoning clearly while much was to be gained from winning arguments Elizabeth Kolbert Why Facts Don t Change Our Minds Issue of February 27 2017 And here s a new review of The Undoing Project from April 20 2017 in which the reviewer is concerned about the potential for unconscious manipulation that is that cognitive science is being used to manipulate rather than to remove the sources of bias But he may be missing the degree to which cognitive science concerns how things are not pushing how things should be that we re already swimming in a sea of pressures and biases that reason isn t what we think it is October 11 2017 When I was reading and reviewing this book I was critical of Michael Lewis focus on relationship issues I even thought that focus was in the service of an eventual movie But subseuently an aspect of the relationship and its eventual breakdown is what has stayed with me The two principals had an extraordinarily intense and creative working relationship that they described as instantaneous sharing of ideas and uncritical acceptance as though two people were sharing one mind Then they moved to another country One of them got divorced and remarried They no longer worked at the same university One of them was charismatic and impressive and got disproportionately rewarded by the world so that he became convinced he was the valuable partner and even began to take sole credit for work they had done together Yet the other may have been the main source of their new ideasAmos changed said Danny When I gave him an idea he would look for what was good in it For what was right with it That for me was the happiness in the collaboration He understood me better than I understood myself He stopped doing that my italicsWhat changes people What frees them and lets them be who they are supposed to be What saves them or activates them and really makes the difference Something like what was going on with Kahneman and Tversky But it can t be applied mechanically or as a techniue And it has nothing to do with being niceI don t think I m in Kansas the territory of cognitive psychology any Richard Thaler has just won the Nobel in Economics

review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our MindsThe Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Rtnerships in the history of science Kahneman and Tversky’s extraordinary friendship incited a revolution in Big Data studies advanced evidence based medicine led to a new approach to gove. I will be bold and confidently tell you what this book is all aboutHumans making decisions are inherently handicapped by systematic biases that make them think they are being logical but often or possibly usually are not And Mankind longs for certainty but we live in an inherently uncertain word Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilistic Universe Kindle Locations 2619 2620There no need to read any or my reviewBUT I do ramble on so here goesThe two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman starting in the 1960 s discovered when people make decisions in times of uncertainty they are influenced by biases in place of statistical thinking and sometimes flying in the face of statistics make decisions uite confidently Sometimes with deadly resultsThere are tons of cool psychology terms like heuristic availability heuristic representativeness heuristic I am not going to define heuristic for anybody until I actually figure it out and that may be my first criticism Lewis mentions something about rules of thumb and somehow I m supposed to understand what heuristic means I think I picked it up from context but I don t want to embarrass myself by mis defining itOK refocus SO we humans live in an uncertain world but in general we bend our thinking and our memory so we are certain of things than we ought to be And Daniel Kahneman was uniuely ualified to investigate this kind of thing The closest he came to certainty was in his approach to making decisions He never simply went with his first thought He suggested a new definition of the nerd a person who knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it Kindle Locations 245 247And they go on to identify and the multitude of ways people reassure themselves they are right The easily people can call some scenario to mind the available it is to them the probable they find it to be Kindle Locations 2506 2507 Conseuently Amos and Danny wrote the use of the availability heuristic leads to systematic biases Human judgment was distorted by the memorable Kindle Locations 2531 2533As it relates to the last US presidential election the key insight is that people simply don t make decision because of factual analysis Apparently the director general didn t want to rely on the best estimates He preferred his own internal probability calculator his gut That was the moment I gave up on decision analysis said Danny No one ever made a decision because of a number They need a story Kindle Locations 3359 3361And of course one big argument is between this thinking and economist and their related political parties who claim people will act logically in their own self interests Thereby letting the invisible hand of capitalism solve all our problems von Neumann and Morgenstern transitivity axiom If he preferred A to B and B to C then he should prefer A to C Anyone who preferred A to B and B to C but then turned around and preferred C to A violated expected utility theory Kindle Locations 3429 3432 Like the other rules of rationality the independence axiom seemed reasonable and not obviously contradicted by the way human beings generally behaved Kindle Locations 3437 3438Too bad it is just a crock of well somethingPeople don t make decisions because of the utility of how it will improve their life The point is people make decisions because of the story line they construct in their head The story generated either from memory or from cultural outside influences Which definitely explains the whole business of advertising Too bad we are running the world because of the stories But these stories people told themselves were biased by the availability of the material used to construct them Images of the future are shaped by experience of the past they wrote turning on its head Santayana s famous lines about the importance of history Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it What people remember about the past they suggested is likely to warp their judgment of the future We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur The defect often is in our imagination Kindle Locations 2569 2575 INTERMISSIONI have to point out that any smart person reading this or the book itself will think HEY that is not me I am logical and make logical decisionsAnd it does get fuzzy because a lot of their evidence is from psychological test with a bunch of hypothetical situations So sure maybe in real life we would straighten up and not let our natural biases rule us And I bet a lot of people believe that But seeing some of the real life choices I ve seen or heard aboutI m gonna stick with Amos and Danny There is a bunch and some pretty shocking examples of how susceptible experts are to all these same biasesOn a final note most of what I said above is from the first of the book And the last part is about The Undoing Project that is not covered as well to the point I wonder why Lewis chose that title Unless he is saying A D are undoing the thinking of the conventional world Or probably it was some wordplay and only refers the undoing of their friendship maybeConclusion 1 Great points on how screwed we are as a civilization and how making good decision is an uphill battleConclusion 2 Even though they were both brilliant psychologist and I m just a poor schlub reading about them I think they are so into discounting traditional psychology they miss a big part of being human I don t think either of them give much credence that we are anything than decisions making machines Not much for the unconscious or subconscious or any non measurable part to living So my irrational notion there is something to life than the measurable keeps me from being enthusiastic about this book and I wish Lewis had addressed that

read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis

read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Rnment regulation and made much of Michael Lewis’s own work possible In The Undoing Project Lewis shows how their Nobel Prize–winning theory of the mind altered our perception of reality. He suggested a new definition of the nerd a person who knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it Michael Lewis The Undoing Project A Friendship that Changed Our MindsTversky Intelligence Test The faster you realized Tversky was smarter than you the smarter you wereI love Michael Lewis His ability for finding an idea that is centered on a person and then telling that person s story is phenomenal He isn t the only one that does it John McPhee is a master at this angle perhaps THE master Lewis just does it very very well This book is basically a book about the development of behavioral economics or at least the thread of behavioral economics that came from two Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky These men were two brilliant academics drawn together by a marriage of knowledge and they created a family of ideas related to Cognitive psychology Judgment and decision making Behavioral economics Hedonic psychologyThey wrote revolutionary papers on anchoring and adjustment availability heuristic base rate fallacy conjunction fallacy framing behavioral finance clustering illusion loss aversion prospect theory cumulative prospect theory representativeness heuristicI first heard of these men when I was studying public policy back in my young college days The professor I worked under had his PhD from Chicago and was constantly throwing various funky economic articles etc at us It was through this professor I was first exposed to Steven Levitt and Stephen J Dubner see Freakonomics Dan Ariely AND Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky I loved behavioral economics I m not sure what it is about multi disciplinary approaches but I ve always loved them I often find academic fields to be too insular too artificial In a way there are huge gaps that never get covered because they don t fit easily into one field or any field Those academics who are willing to learn another language and take their search for truth beyond economics or math or physics biology chemistry or psychology and utilize the language and processes of other fields THRILL me So while there wasn t much on the academic side here I wasn t already familiar with from things I ve read the lsat 20 years I LOVED reading about Kahneman and Tversky and some of the other minor players in this book


10 thoughts on “EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

  1. says: review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds This nonfiction is unlike others Michael Lewis has offered us In this he tries the trick of explaining confusion by demonstrating confusion but near the end of this work we appreciate again Lewis’ distinctive clarity and well developed sense of irony as he addresses a very conseuential collaboration in the hi

  2. says: review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Being a baseball lover one of my favorite books is Michael Lewis' Moneyball where he follows the low budget 2002 Oakland A's during their remarkable division winning season I found this book informative while also exploring the business of baseball What made this book special is that Lewis made baseball interesting for pe

  3. says: review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Originally reviewed in January 2017After reading about this book I pre ordered it six months before its release date It's about the work of the psychologist Daniel Kahneman who published Thinking Fast and Slow in 2

  4. says: EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download This is a great story about two genius psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky They did groundbreaking research that led to improved understanding of how we make decisions Although their personalities were total oppos

  5. says: read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds First of all I feel somewhat guilty about the rating Some parts of the book I liked very much Michael Lewis writes well but I believe he has fallen short here Lewis is best at setting up an underdog who beats the system in sports the financial markets etc He has attempted the same here about Tversky and Kahneman But reading about

  6. says: read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis I will be bold and confidently tell you what this book is all aboutHumans making decisions are inherently handicapped by systematic biases that make them think they are being logical but often or possibly usually are not And Mankind longs for certainty but we live in an inherently uncertain word Man is a deterministic devi

  7. says: EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Amos Tversky and David Kahneman are psychologists who met in Israel in the 1960’s Though very different in personality they became very close friends and went on to collaborate in producing a number of papers c

  8. says: EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds It is a testament to Michael Lewis' writing that chunks of the psychological research featured in this book were beyond my comprehension and yet I still enjoyed reading it

  9. says: EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download “He suggested a new definition of the nerd a person who knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it” ― Michael Lewis The Undoing Project A Friendship that Changed Our MindsTversky Intelligence Test The fast

  10. says: review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download EBOOK The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

    read Ñ E-book, or Kindle E-pub Ê Michael Lewis Michael Lewis Ê 9 free download review The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds To start with the mundane and annoying for a book with this much technical content terms and names an index almost seems a necessity yet none was provided More footendnotes and perhaps a fuller bibliography would be helpful too We must support the popularization of scholarly topics and I’ve read that it takes on average at leas

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  • Paperback
  • 368
  • The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
  • Michael Lewis
  • English
  • 22 April 2019
  • 9780393354775